Your House Is Worth Less Than Last Year. So Is the One You Want. Here's the Upsizer Math.

Here's the short version: if you're thinking about selling your Toronto home and buying a bigger one, a softer market isn't automatically bad news for you. Yes, your house is probably worth a bit less than it was a year ago. So is the house you want to buy. And when you're doing both, it's the gap between those two prices that matters, not the headline.

TRREB released its October 2026 numbers this week, and they're a good excuse to walk through the math I go over with upsizers at my kitchen table. No hype, no "now is the perfect time" nonsense. Just the numbers and what they mean.

What October actually looked like

Here's the tea, straight from TRREB's October report:

• 🏠 5,603 homes sold across the GTA, down 7.9% from October 2025. Not great. But on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 1.2% from September.
• 📉 The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% year over year. The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.3%.
• 🆕 New listings dropped 11.9% to 14,173. Active listings were down 10%, to 25,098 homes.
• 🏙️ In the City of Toronto, 2,184 homes sold, down 6.3%, at an average price of $1,075,627.
• 🏡 Detached homes held up best. Detached sales were down 4.4%, compared with 8.1% for semis, 10.4% for condos and 11% for townhouses.

Translation: fewer people are buying, fewer people are selling, and prices are a little lower than last year. TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, put it plainly: "You essentially have both buyers and sellers sitting on the sidelines right now."

I'll be honest with you. It's a slower, more challenging market this fall, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. But "slower" and "bad for you" aren't the same thing, especially if you're an upsizer.

Why upsizers should look at the gap, not the headline

When you sell one house and buy another in the same market, you're on both sides of the price change. If prices dip, you get a little less for your current home, and you pay a little less for the next one.

Here's a simple illustration. These aren't real listings, just round numbers to show how the math works.

Say you own a semi in Leslieville and you're hoping to move into a detached home in Riverdale or the Upper Beach.

• A year ago, your home might have sold for $1,300,000, and the home you want was $1,800,000. The gap: $500,000.
• Now apply a 4.3% drop to both (the same percentage as the October benchmark decline). Your home is now about $1,244,100, and the next one is about $1,722,600.
• The new gap: about $478,500. That's roughly $21,500 less you need to bridge.

You "lost" about $55,900 on your sale. But you "saved" about $77,400 on your purchase. Because the bigger house is the bigger number, the same percentage drop works in your favour.

Now the honest fine print: real markets don't move in perfect lockstep. Some homes and streets hold their value better than others, and the October numbers show detached homes held up better than other types. So your actual gap depends on your home, the home you want and the street it's on. That's exactly why I run real comparables for each side before anyone makes a move.

What about the rate hike?

You probably saw that the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.5% last week, its first increase since 2023. The big banks moved prime from 4.45% to 4.70%.

That's real, and it matters. But let's keep it in proportion.

On the illustration above, if you borrowed the full $478,500 gap, a quarter-point increase works out to about $1,200 more interest over a year, or about $100 a month. That's a rough estimate, not a mortgage quote, and your actual payment depends on your full mortgage, your term and your lender. But it gives you a sense of scale. Davelle Morrison, a broker with Bosley Real Estate, told reporters the increase usually adds less than $100 to a monthly mortgage payment.

TRREB's Jason Mercer made a similar point: lower selling prices have helped offset the hit from higher borrowing costs. In his words, "GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year."

Translation: rates went up a little. Prices came down a little. For a lot of buyers, those two things roughly cancel out.

The real risk for upsizers: timing, not prices

In my 22 years, the upsizers who get burned usually aren't hurt by the market. They're hurt by the order they do things in.

In a slower market, homes can take longer to sell. If you buy first and your house sits, you could be carrying two homes or rushing into a price cut. If you sell first, you might feel squeezed to find the next place fast.

Neither approach is wrong. But you need a plan for both before you start:

• Know your real number. What will your home sell for in today's market, not last spring's? Get a proper evaluation based on recent sales on your street, not a guess.
• Know your gap. Use that number and real comparables for the homes you want to estimate the difference you'll need to bridge.
• Talk to your lender early. Ask about bridge financing and what your payment looks like at today's rates, so you're not finding out mid-offer.
• Prepare your home properly. In a market where buyers have choices, the homes that sell well are the ones that show well. Pricing right and presenting well beat waiting for spring.
• Build in flexibility. Longer closing dates and conditional offers are more realistic in this market than they were a few years ago. Use that to your advantage.

What this means for you

If you've been waiting on the sidelines to move up, from a semi on a Leslieville side street to a detached home with a yard near Withrow Park, or from a Danforth starter home to something with more room in the Upper Beach, this market isn't a reason to panic and it isn't a reason to rush.

It's a reason to do the math.

The headline says prices are down. For an upsizer, the more useful question is whether the gap got smaller, and for many people it has. Add a little more negotiating room and a little less competition, and it can be a good window to make a move, as long as you have a plan for selling and buying together.

And if the numbers don't work for you yet? I'll tell you that too. We'll always tell you the truth, even when it's not what you want to hear.

FAQ

Is it a good time to sell and buy in Toronto right now? It depends on your numbers, not the headlines. GTA prices are lower than a year ago, which means you'll likely get a bit less for your home but also pay a bit less for the next one. For many upsizers, the gap between the two has narrowed. The best way to know is to price both sides using recent sales.

Did the Bank of Canada rate hike make buying more expensive? Somewhat. The Bank raised its policy rate a quarter point to 2.5% in late October, and prime rose to 4.70%. Lower selling prices have offset much of that for many buyers, according to TRREB. Your actual payment depends on your mortgage, so talk to your lender or mortgage broker.

Should I buy first or sell first when upsizing? There's no single right answer. Buying first gives you certainty on your next home but risks carrying two properties. Selling first gives you certainty on your budget but can put pressure on your search. In a slower market, many people find selling first, or selling and buying with a longer closing, less stressful. A clear plan for both matters most.

Are Toronto home prices still falling? As of October 2026, the GTA average selling price was down 2.7% and the benchmark price was down 4.3% from a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both the average price and the benchmark edged up from September. One month isn't a trend, so watch the next few reports before drawing conclusions.

Thinking about your next chapter?

If you're wondering what your home would sell for today, or what your "gap" might look like on the streets you love, send us a message. We'll give you the honest read on your situation, no pressure. And if the timing isn't right yet, we'll tell you that too.

Sources

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) October 2026 figures, as reported by Global News: https://globalnews.ca/news/12136224/toronto-area-home-sales-october-2026/
• Canadian Mortgage Trends (Canadian Press): https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/11/greater-toronto-area-home-sales-down-nearly-8-in-october-real-estate-board/
• CP24: https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/11/04/gta-home-sales-fall-nearly-8-with-buyers-and-sellers-sitting-on-the-sidelines-amid-economic-uncertainty/
• Storeys: https://storeys.com/trreb-october-2026-gta-buyers/
• Daryl King, TRREB Market Watch October 2026 summary (City of Toronto average price): https://www.darylking.ca/trreb-market-watch-october-2026/